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The migratory pressure on the European Union: Causes and Prospects

Abstract: The article analyses the migratory potential of the countries in Africa and the Middle East as a source of migratory pressure on the European Union. The first part focuses on the factors explaining the magnitude and the peculiarities of this migratory potential. Special attention is paid to the characteristics of the age structure, the increasing shortage of employment for the new generations and the lack of resources for the growing population in Africa and the Middle East. In the second part of the article are formulated four perspectives of the migratory pressure on the EU: 1/ The migratory pressure will increase over the next decade; 2/ The differentiation between the refugees and the economic migrants will become more and more difficult; 3/ The migratory pressure will include in itself potential for Islamist terrorism, motivated by the crisis of the life perspectives of the young people in Africa and the Middle East; 4 / Middle East' and African migrants in Europe will support dual and conflict loyalties (to the old and the new homeland), which will cause concern among the "local" European population. Finally the article draws the conclusion that in this complex situation the EU faces a double challenge - to save the refugees and to save himself.

Keywords: Demographic transitions, migration pressure, push and pull factors, youth bulges, Africa and Middle East, European Union, migration policy